and England's dreaming...

Well, it's worked. We're all going to die, and it will be ugly. From The Guardian:

Climate change sceptics and fossil fuel companies that have lobbied against action on greenhouse gas emissions have squandered the world's chance to avoid dangerous global warming, a key adviser to the government has said.

Professor Bob Watson, chief scientist at the Department for Environment and Rural Affairs, said a decade of inaction on climate change meant it was now virtually impossible to limit global temperature rise to 2C. He said the delay meant the world would now do well to stabilise warming between 3C and 4C.

His comments come ahead of key UN negotiations on a new global climate treaty in Copenhagen next month that the UK government insists should still aim for a 2C goal, despite doubts over whether a meaningful deal can be sealed.

In an interview with the Guardian, Watson said: "Those that have opposed a deal on climate, which would include elements of the fossil fuel industry, have clearly made making a 2C target much, much harder, if not impossible. They've clearly put the world at risk of far more adverse effects of climate change."

Water gone, across the board decreases in cereal grain production, sea level rise, and inconsistent weather patterns (meaning no year-over-year understanding of what the weather is likely to do, to say nothing of more and more frequent extreme weather events), man, the next century is going to really suck.

The UN released a press release today saying that we've never (since recording started in the late 1700s) seen GHG levels this high (CO², methane, and nitrous oxide).

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Copenhagen, Canada, and the End of the World

The Globe and Mail is reporting on an interview with Environment Minister Jim Prentice, saying that the chance of an agreement on climate change in Copenhagen is pretty much non-existent.
The world wants a climate change agreement in Copenhagen. The US is even onside, with President Obama actually understanding both the science and political realities of global warming. The EU wants an agreement, with Germany busy poaching Canadian alternative energy companies and the Brits launching the 10-10 campaign. China is even pursuing lower carbon emissions. So what's the problem?
The problem is the Canadian government. Canada has become the biggest roadblock to an international agreement to lower carbon emissions. According the the G&M article (23 October 2009, p A1 Ottawa dashes hope for treaty in Copenhagen) Canada is continuing to "insist that it should have a less aggressive target for emission reductions[...] because of its faster-growing population and energy-intensive industrial structure". The Harper government is also going to insist that any cap on industrial emissions will not be applied uniformly across the country, but will allow the Alberta oil sands to continue expanding. To quote the Environment Minister; "The Canadian approach has to reflect the diversity of the country and the sheer size of the country, and the very different economic characteristics and industrial structure across the country." The Harper government has also demanded that emerging economies (like China and India) agree to binding caps on carbon emissions, and has refused to release its own plan for carbon reduction until there is clarity on what the Americans are planning to do.
The New Democratic Party has a bill currently in committee that would commit Canada to an emission reduction of 25% from 1990 levels by 2020--a target that would meet our commitment under Kyoto and would be consistent with the EU's approach in the next round of negotiations. Ottawa has proposed a reduction of 20% from 2006 levels of emissions by 2020--our obligation under Kyoto was a cut of 6% from 1990 levels by 2012. The plan proposed by the Harper government would result in a 3% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020. Chief climate negotiator Michael Martin said to the committee considering the NDP bill that the Harper government's targets are "comparable" because they will be just as costly to achieve as the more aggressive NDP targets.
What becomes clear, as we follow the progress towards significant carbon emission reductions, is that the Harper government has no intention of ever reducing carbon emissions. Harper simply does not consider carbon emissions to be a problem (how can I say that? By simply looking at his record).
And our Prime Minister is dragging a lot of sceptics along with him. World-wide, temperatures maxed out in 1998, leading deniers to claim that temperatures have levelled off or are even declining. But new research to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, was carried out by Judith Lean, of the US Naval Research Laboratory, and David Rind, of Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The research, "is the first to assess the combined impact on global temperature of four factors: human influences such as CO₂ and aerosol emissions; heating from the sun; volcanic activity and the El Niño southern oscillation, the phenomenon by which the Pacific Ocean flips between warmer and cooler states every few years.

The analysis shows the relative stability in global temperatures in the last seven years is explained primarily by the decline in incoming sunlight associated with the downward phase of the 11-year solar cycle, together with a lack of strong El Niño events. These trends have masked the warming caused by CO₂ and other greenhouse gases.

As solar activity picks up again in the coming years, the research suggests, temperatures will shoot up at 150% of the rate predicted by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Lean and Rind's research also sheds light on the extreme average temperature in 1998. The paper confirms that the temperature spike that year was caused primarily by a very strong El Niño episode. A future episode could be expected to create a spike of equivalent magnitude on top of an even higher baseline, thus shattering the 1998 record.

The study comes within days of announcements from climatologists that the world is entering a new El Niño warm spell. This suggests that temperature rises in the next year could be even more marked than Lean and Rind's paper suggests." (The Guardian Online).

The British Meteorological Office released a new map of the world (below) showing the current thinking on what the world will look like with a 4°C rise in the average global temperature. The 4°C rise mostly happens at the equator--the further you move away from the equator, the greater the changes. Here on Vancouver Island, we may only see an average 5°C rise, but up in Hudson's Bay, its looking more like 16°C. What this doesn't indicate is just how this will affect global weather patterns. If it was just going to get warmer, that wouldn't be the end of the world.But all that extra energy is going to change things in ways we can't imagine yet, much less model.

The Met Office says that climate researchers have discovered that:

• levels of CO2 have risen 40% since the Industrial Revolution
• Global sea levels have risen 10cm in the last 50 years [and that's a hell of a lot of water]
• temperatures in the Arctic have risen at twice the global average [which suits our Prime Minister just fine]
• snow cover in the northern hemisphere has dropped 5% in the last 2 decades

And researchers figure that extreme temperatures will affect eastern North America, with Toronto and Ottawa seeing the temperatures of their hottest days jumping by up to 10°C to 12°C. Anyone having suffered through a GTA summer will be white with fear about now....

Australia Ablaze

I cannot begin to imagine what is happening in Oz. There's 108 confirmed deaths and the photos are just mind-boggling. From The Guardian:

At least 750 homes have been destroyed and more than 330,000 hectares burnt out, while authorities said some fires could take weeks to contain.

Jim, from Tanjil South, was seeking refuge in his swimming pool with embers dropping in the water around him when he called ABC radio to describe his ordeal. He said it was as dark as midnight, and "we can smell the fire... we're still in the pool here and we can hardly see here, it's so dark".

You get used to stories of brushfires from Australia, but this is a whole 'nother level of bad. The Guardian published this illustration--check out the numbers--20,000 hectares on fire, 2,000 hectares on fire, 210,000 hectares on fire.


Linked from the Guardian website

There's also an interactive map from Google Australia here. And The Guardian has two dozen photos here--some of these are unreal, showing a wall of smoke shot through with flames over four stories high.  There is also two minutes of video that give some slight sense of the speed with which the fire is moving--five minutes from there to gone.
For a broader overview of what's happening, check out Natalie Bennett's column The 'Continent of Smoke' is still burning.

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Water Stress

The Telegraph is reporting on a new report from the Environment Agency that some 24 million people in Britain and Wales are in areas of "water stress;" that is, an area where a bad year for rainfall means there simply will not be enough water.
"[The report] warns that many rivers, lakes, estuaries and aquifers are already
being drained so low that there is a danger to wildlife and a risk to
public supplies in dry years." It also warns that these households have less water available per person than the populations of Morocco and Egypt have. Average water use in the UK is 148 litres/day with a high of 170 litres/day in the south-east of England.
And global climate change is just getting started. Here on Vancouver Island, we get plenty of precipitation during the winter, but it must be carefully managed to get us through the two to three months a year when we get no appreciable rainfall. Worldwide, not only do we not have a lot of room to manoeuvre, but in many places we've no room left at all.

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Boxing Day +2

Woke up this morning and took the dogs for a walk--already the snow was pretty much gone. We met john and Louise for coffee and then the four of us went walking in the sunshine down to see the two kayaks abandoned on the beach (the one Paula salvaged and another). Both have been kicking around since the summer, but both have since been moved and are now clearly abandoned.
The weather has been terrific today. Lots of sun and mild temperatures--not even any wind. A bit of a breeze came up this afternoon--as usual--but it didn't get cold until the new front blocked out the sun mid-afternoon. When Paula and I got home from cleaning one of the cars we're responsible for (as members of the Victoria Car Share Co-op), I wandered down to Gyro Park to get some photos.


Olympic Mountains from a snow-free Gyro Park
The mountains aren't snow-free (although it may be difficult to tell from this distance), but the park is pretty much cleared. There's a lot of melt-water still trying to drain away, but there's considerably less than this morning (by about three quarters).


Wet, sure, but snow-free
The tides have been quite high (not perigeal tide high, but getting close), which makes it difficult for the park to drain. But as the tide goes out, the park empties. The park was originally a salt-marsh (home, I believe, to many harvest mice--which in some countries is how March goes out: like a salt-marsh harvest mouse), and is quite low. I suspect that if I took out a transit and stick, I'd discover that quite a bit of the park is below the high-tide line.


Frozen water in Gyro Park
There are those who are not unhappy with Gyro's slow draining. The photo above shows some of the undrained water in the park, which is appreciated by the local ducks (all fifty or sixty of them), and when frozen (as they are here), by the local kids who rarely get to slide about on frozen ponds. they were having a pretty great time.

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Boxing Day

Out to walk the dogs this morning and the mountains across the strait were suddenly so much closer. It may not show too much at this resolution, but with our recent snow, everything is that much higher contrast, has that much more reflected light, so the details visible stand out that much more.



The camera doesn't catch what the eye does, but the eye also fills in detail that may or may not be there. The mountains looked so close this morning that you almost expected to be able to see houses or cars.
This won't last long. The weather is set to change--tomorrow is forecast to be +6°C or better, with rain or sun for the next four or five days. The snow we have left will be gone so fast, along with this morning's view across the water.

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Snow Day

Yes, the rest of Canada is in a deep freeze. No, we really don't understand winter on the West Coast. Fine. But I'm still going to walk you through a day in the snow in the land where it's still exciting when snow falls (just like Vegas *giggle*snort*guffaw*teehee*).



Twisted Hazel Tree

This twisted hazel is near Paula's parent's place. We were over there this morning having brunch with them and then walking home.


Paula in the parking lot

Paula, standing here wetsuit free again, was well dressed for the weather. Unfortunately, the weather had warmed overnight and into the morning, leaving her somewhat overdressed. I was wearing a microfibre base layer and a fleece pullover. With a toque and gloves, I was dressed well enough for the day. I did have a windproof coat in my pack, but never had to pull it out.


Mt. Tolmie from Cedar Hill Xroad

the city really isn't prepared for snow like this. A light dusting, maybe a centimetre, but not fifteen centimetres. Things tend to shut down.


The Snow Fight

Not everything, mind. These kids, on their way from somewhere to somewhere, decided that a snow fight was in order. And were having a lot of fun. Just like this guy:


Another cool day

Or these two making a snowman:


Snowman 1

It may not be obvious, but this snowman sported a moustache made of candy canes (a bit Snidely Whiplash, but soooo cool!) and is holding his 1 Wood for a game of snow golf. They were having quite a giggle, too.
We continued our walk-- a bit longer than usual, as the university hadn't got 'round to clearing the sidewalks yet, so we had to go around--past our kid's old elementary school


Campus View Elementary School

and back to MacKenzie Ave. Everywhere we walked today, at least a half dozen people had walked before. This didn't mean that the sidewalks were clear, or even well-packed, but I was impressed that so many people were out walking.
By the time we headed up MacKenzie toward the house, the wind was picking up a bit. Or maybe just getting better at picking us out. Whatever, it meant that it did get a bit colder as we walked.


Cadboro Bay from Sinclair Hill

But there are things that make the cold fall away. Like this view; I stop almost every time that I walk down the hill, astonished that I actually live here (actually, right down at the bottom near the water). And people like our neighbours:


The Giant Snowman

Here they are building a snowman in front of their house. Seldom have I seen a snowman this tall. Even Curtis was impressed with what he and his daughter had done. It was over 2 metres tall!
Did Paula go kayaking today? Well, here's a photo of her Eliza:


Eliza in the snow

Yeah, not so much. Don't you love the way the snow has warmed over the day and slumped off the front of the Eliza?
The walk was almost enough exercise, but instead of going out on the water, we walked over to our local (in this case, Starbucks rather than the pub) and read for an hour or so over coffee/tea/whatever and chatted with our various neighbours who dropped by.
That's Victoria--snow days are days that are still fun. We don't get them that often, so when we do, we take the time to enjoy them. Don't you wish you lived here?

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Another View

Snowflakes are really pretty cool (no pun intended). Caltech has posted some amazing pictures through a specially designed snowflake photomicrograph.


Check them out here.

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What is this, Alberta?!

You have to wonder, what with the snow and windchill and the snow and the windchill.
It's not really that much snow--somewhere between five and ten centimetres. But this is Victoria, so the city pretty much shut down yesterday.



About 10:30 am we were walking over to the in-law's place for Sunday brunch. Lila was leaving for Edmonton (and, snicker, -30ºC) and this was going to be Christmas brunch for the 5 of us.



I thought it was kind of pretty--even if it was bringing back too many memories of Alberta. What's worse, though, is that Greater Victoria doesn't really have a lot in the way of snow removal experience--or snow removal equipment, for that matter. though things have improved since the Great Snow of 1998 (no, seriously. A metre of wet, heavy snow fell overnight. Cars disappeared. It really was insane).
We had brunch with the folks, and Lila eventually made her way over (Sunday transit service and very slippery streets do add up to a certain amount of traffic tie-ups). I picked up the Victoria Car Share pickup we'd reserved, and picked her and Paula up for the trip to the airport. It took ten or so tries, but I eventually got out of the parking lot at the condo. Not much of a rise, but the snow that had fallen was very wet (typical here on the West Coast) and when the temperature stayed below zero, the water--particularly where the snow had been driven on) began to freeze. Quite different from the much drier snow of Alberta.
The trip to the airport was uneventful, except for the fact that on the highway people were actually driving at the speed limit or below. Anyone who's driven out to the airport or ferry knows just how unusual that is!
Lila went through security into the holding cell boarding area, and Paula and I returned to the city--again at or below the speed limit. We picked up groceries (stuff in volume, like rice, that I didn't want to carry the 3 km home on my back), and then I dropped off the truck.
The 3km walk back to the house was not too bad. It would have been better had I been able to find my toque or fleece hat, but nooo. Trip over them every friggin' day, but when it snows? Gone.



Seriously, McKenzie Ave by UVic looks like any winter scene in Edmonton--especially if you could see the blowing snow in this shot. the only difference is that Edmonton is usually sunnier than Victoria was yesterday.
Walking down from the university, where McKenzie turns into Sinclair Hill, you could catch glimpses of Mt. Baker.



I pointed it out to a couple that came up while I was taking the photograph, and they stopped, suprised, to look at the mountain glowing through the trees. "What, you can see Baker from here?!" "Sure can." As we looked, another couple of girls stopped, somewhat suprised to see the mountain. Do people never look around them as they walk? Sure it was icy and you did have to pay attention, but this was four people suprised to see a mountain that I look for pretty much every trip down the hill.

When I got back to the house, Paula and I went out on the beach. I wanted to find a set of stairs off the beach I'd found (from the top) the other day.



The beach didn't look normal. Something was subtly different. Not the driftwood or logs, not the trees. Hmm. Oh, the way Paula is dressed! No wetsuit!



Great Chain looked a bit different too, and not just because of the perigeal tide. Somehow it showed up better across the water, reflecting more light.



But I'm not kidding about someone overfilling the ocean. this is a bit past high tide, and a day past the highest tide of the weekend, but even so, the water's been washing over the gravel you see, and up to the snow line. That's a lot of water. Oh, and you can see the snow blowing through the park (centre-left).
I did find the bottom of the stairs.



Hard to imagine that I've consistently missed them. I've seen them a couple of times, but they keep falling off my mental map of the area. So this time I climbed them.



It's a darned nice view. Not the usual look I get at Cadboro Bay. The boats at the mooring buoys by the yacht club are clearly laid out in rows, not randomly as they appear from the beach or water.

While Paula and I were walking through the uncharacteristic snow and below zero temperatures, we spotted something in the water.



Yup, that's a kayak. Didn't look like one at first, but once we saw the red of the upper deck, it was pretty clear. This was a kayak in trouble. And, if you know us, that's just going to be the beginning of the story.



It was late, getting dark, and cold. The fastest way to get this kayak salvaged was for Paula to go out in her Dragonfly. She got changed, and I carried her boat down to the water through the (very cold, very strong) wind, and she prepped her lines. I don't fit in the Dragonfly (that's my excuse and I'm sticking to it!), so it would be up to Paula to get a line onto the bow of the sunken boat.



After some struggles with the wind and line, Paula got attached and hauled the other end back to me on the shore (it's true, I'm the muscle, she's the brains). It took a little while, and the sky kept getting darker while the wind kept a-blowin'. Thankfully it wasn't kicking up too much chop--the wind was coming more from the north, which doesn't let it get too frisky with the water in Cadboro Bay. Eventually, I got my hands on the line and slowly dragged the sunken kayak into shore.



Brutally heavy, filled with water, it took quite a while to get it up on the beach. It didn't help that once the water was out, I was still trying to move a boat with 20 kilos of wet sand in it.
We tied the boat off to a log--hoping the wind doesn't shift while the tide is still in--so it doesn't get pulled back out. I wasn't in a real hurry to haul it back to the house, and there's a reason for that.



Yeah, the bottom is badly damaged in at least three places. Once the cold weather settles down (probably not tomorrow), I'll head back down to it and see if I want to repair it. Or maybe just salvage the skeg setup out of it. I wouldn't complain about another kayak in the quiver, but I have to guard against having for the sake of having--after all, that's how I got our latest kayak....

We heard from Lila after dropping her at the airport; her flight to Vancouver had been cancelled. Air Canada finally flew her over about 7:00 pm and she was shunted onto a 10:30 pm flight to Edmonton. From what we've heard, the incomparable Quinn picked her up at Edmonton International after 1:00 am--when he had work that morning at 6:00am. It is true, we know the best people.

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